One of the more difficult things to deal with in Risk Management is the notion of possible VS probable when making a decision about risk realisation. This notion played out late last year with the tragic death of a young Australian cricketer and then two days later by a cricketing umpire in Israel. In both instances a fast paced ball and lack of adequate head protection was the culprit but were these freak events?

We often discuss the realm of possibility when considering risk and comparing it to the realm of probability where risk is cumulative and a matter of chance in realising into an event. In both tragic cricket instances, the risk was known. In the Australian instance, it was understood that the head protection was incomplete behind the ears. No doubt the thoughts were that this weakness was highly unlikely to result in an event, therefore considered a possibility though not probable. In the second instance, a lack of head protection for the umpire arrived at the same conclusion – possible but not probable.
But if we think about the actions of the ball and the repetitive nature of the game whilst understanding the notion that risk is cumulative, then we would interpret a different outcome. Making decisions around possible and probable requires that we raise our thought processes towards unencumbered thinking and above cognitive bias – in this instance, the bias would have been - it never happened before.

These recent cricket experiences demonstrate the complex nature of risk management and the necessity for people to work through an inquiry process in an open, unencumbered yet structured way. This is of course, harder to do with a collective of insiders and demonstrates the occasional need for the outsider who brings along sound facilitation processes and conceptual expertise to create the environment where unencumbered thinking can flow. This is our productive purpose. Contact us today to explore how Enhance Solutions can assist your organisation with fresh thinking around risk management.